Wave Two Is Coming.
Wave Two Chinese rare earth export controls expire November 10, 2026. Their activation will restructure the global non-Chinese supply chain — creating acute sourcing risk, forcing contract renegotiations, triggering qualification processes that take 18-24 months, and requiring corporate strategic decisions that most organisations have not yet made.
MPC works with management teams, boards, and investors to understand their exposure, assess their options, and execute the adjustments required — before the window closes.
Who We Are
MPC is a specialist advisory firm focused on the consequences of Wave Two rare earth export controls and the strategic, commercial, and operational adjustments they require across global non-Chinese supply chains.
When Wave Two activates, every organisation with rare earth content in its products or supply chain faces the same set of decisions: what is our actual exposure, what are our realistic alternatives, what needs to start now, and who runs the process. MPC provides the expertise and the dedicated resource to answer all four — from component-level exposure mapping through to funded programme execution.
Independent. Hands-on. No theoretical frameworks.
OUR APPROACH
Wave Two activation restructures the global non-Chinese supply chain. The consequences are not just a sourcing problem — they require corporate strategic decisions about product architecture, supplier base, investment priorities, and programme participation. MPC guides organisations through three stages: from understanding current exposure, through assessing realistic alternatives, to executing the adjustments that protect supply chain resilience long-term.
Component-level Wave Two mapping. We analyse your bill of materials at the sub-component level — not just the material level where most reviews stop. Output: a clear picture of exactly which product lines carry licensing risk, and at what severity.
For each exposed category, we map realistic non-Chinese supply alternatives — qualification timelines, commercial terms, volume availability, and technical feasibility. Output: a structured options framework with recommended sequencing.
Supplier qualification takes 18-24 months. EU CRMA designation takes 12-18 months. Offtake structuring takes 6-18 months. The organisations that navigate the next supply chain disruption without crisis are running these processes now. MPC manages the programme alongside you.
Our Services
WAVE TWO
With Wave Two enforcement confirmed for November 10, 2026, the first step is component-level exposure mapping. MPC analyses your bill of materials at the sub-component level, producing a clear exposure picture by product line with specific licensing risk per category.
SUPPLY CHAIN RISK
In the context of Wave Two, supply chain analysis is no longer a strategic exercise — it is an operational necessity. MPC conducts in-depth analysis of critical supply chains, focusing on structural risk, resilience, and long-term viability. Our work assesses exposure across upstream, midstream, and downstream segments, including dependency, diversification potential, and practical constraints on localisation.
EMBEDDED PROJECT
Most organisations that need a Wave Two exposure review do not have the internal resource to run one. A supply chain director is already running the supply chain. A procurement manager is already managing procurement.
MPC embeds directly inside your team as the dedicated project resource — running the exposure assessment, options architecture, or strategic activation programme on your behalf. Senior-level expertise, hands-on delivery, clear mandate. No headcount added. No recruitment required.
We also provide incremental senior capacity alongside existing teams — covering the rare earth commercial, policy, and supplier qualification dimensions that most organisations do not have internally.
REGULATORY TRANSLATION
Most organisations can read the Chinese MOFCOM export control regulations. Very few can translate them into what they actually mean for supply contracts, licensing obligations, dual-use classifications, and commercial exposure — and fewer still can build a funded mitigation programme from that analysis.
MPC does all three. We translate the regulatory reality into operational consequence, then build a short / medium / long-term mitigation roadmap with concrete programme support across every relevant global vehicle: EU CRMA strategic designation, EU Horizon, US DoE and DoD, IRA §45X, JOGMEC and METI (Japan), NAIF and Australia’s Critical Minerals Facility.
The result is not a policy briefing. It is an actionable programme — domestically and internationally compliant, funded where possible, and sequenced for execution.
PROGRAMME DEVELOPMENT
Accessing EU, US, Japanese, and Australian critical materials funding programmes is not primarily a paperwork problem. It is a project structuring, partner selection, and process management problem — and most organisations have no dedicated internal resource for any of it.
MPC sets up the project, selects the right partners, manages the process, and sees it through to award and implementation. We identify the right combination of programmes for your specific situation, structure the project to qualify, select and manage technology providers, developers, certification bodies, and co-applicants, and then manage all stakeholder follow-up on your behalf.
EUR 600K in EU Horizon funding secured for a previous client. Active relationships at ERMA, EIT RawMaterials, and DG GROW. Programmes covered: EU CRMA, EU Horizon, US DoE and DoD, IRA §45X, JOGMEC, METI, NAIF, and Australia’s Critical Minerals Facility.